First, the industry development process and stage

In recent years, driven by relevant national ministries and commissions, China's carbon fiber industry has made major breakthroughs in industrialization and scale development. The carbon fiber industry has entered an unprecedented new stage of development. The carbon fiber engineering research and development under the complete carbon fiber research and development chain in China has witnessed the accelerated development momentum, and initially formed a carbon fiber industry gathering place mainly in Shandong, Jiangsu and Jilin. We have established carbon fiber production backbone enterprises such as Weihai Development, Zhongfu Shenying and Jiangsu Hengshen, and a number of carbon fiber composite materials and products enterprises. According to statistics, during 2010-2014, China's carbon fiber production capacity increased from 6445 tons to 15,000 tons, an increase of 2 times, with an average annual growth rate of 23.5%. At present, all carbon fibers produced in China are small tows, of which 12K accounts for more than 90%. , 1K, 3K, 6K each have output.

In the past 20 years, China's carbon fiber industry has achieved breakthroughs in products from scratch, in terms of product categories. T300 grade carbon fiber has achieved industrialization of 1,000 tons, and has been successfully applied in aerospace industry. The T700 grade carbon fiber thousand-ton production line has been completed, and the products have entered the application assessment. The T800 grade carbon fiber 100-ton production line has also been built and mass-produced, while Gaoqiang The key production technology of the high model carbon fiber M50J also achieved breakthroughs. The total carbon fiber production capacity predicted in 2015 and 2020 will reach 18,000 tons and 30,000 tons respectively, and the output is expected to reach 4,000 tons and 21,000 tons respectively.

According to statistics, at present, there are only 3-4 domestic carbon fiber production enterprises with a capacity of more than 1,000 tons. Compared with international comparison, the domestic single-line capacity of carbonization is 2,700 tons/year. The single-line capacity of China's imported production line is 1,000 tons/year. Although the domestic single-line capacity of domestic equipment can reach 1,000 tons/year, it cannot be produced at full capacity. There is no competitive advantage from the international scale in terms of economies of scale. It directly led to the high cost of carbon fiber production in China and the shortage of production. In 2014, the actual domestic production of carbon fiber was only 3,200 tons, far lower than the production capacity. The cumulative production of carbon fiber in 2007-2014 was only 12,300 tons, far lower than the theoretical capacity.

At present, China's high-end carbon fiber materials still rely heavily on imports. China's carbon fiber market imports are mainly carbon fiber, carbon cloth, carbon fiber prepreg and products. According to China's customs statistics: in 2014, the import volume of carbon fiber and products was 1,1726.9 tons, of which 1661.4 tons of carbon fiber. 1836.8 tons of carbon cloth, 1293.3 tons of carbon fiber prepreg, and 6935.4 tons of other materials. Among them, carbon fiber, carbon fiber prepreg and other materials have declined to varying degrees. It can be seen that the vigorous development of China's carbon fiber industry has reduced the dependence on imported products to a certain extent.

Second, the problems and countermeasures of the development of the industry

1. Industrial policy risk

At present, China's carbon fiber industry is positioned as a strategic emerging industry, which has important strategic significance for the country's aerospace and major equipment manufacturing fields. The national industrial policy has played a positive role in guiding the development of the carbon fiber industry. Both the central and local governments have introduced a number of preferential policies to support the development of carbon fiber and related industries. If the above policies change, the focus of the 13th Five-Year Plan will deviate from the carbon fiber-related industries, which will have a negative impact on the development of the industry.

Countermeasures: Enterprises need to focus on improving their core competitiveness so that when support policies are withdrawn, companies can maintain or even expand their market size with their core competencies.

2. Downstream demand is lower than expected

The carbon fiber industry is more closely linked to downstream demand. At present, composite materials are widely used in various aerospace applications such as domestic large aircrafts and unmanned aerial vehicles. New energy vehicles and sports equipment also require higher capacity requirements for carbon fiber materials. However, if the actual demand for carbon fiber products is lower than expected due to the downward pressure on the economy in the future, it will hinder carbon fiber enterprises to expand production scale and intensify competition in the industry.

Countermeasure: When the company responds to the lower-than-expected risk of downstream demand, it can expand the application field of carbon fiber and open up overseas markets to reduce the pressure brought by the downward trend of China's economy.

3. Product price fluctuation risk

The carbon fiber industry itself has high-tech barriers and is a technology-intensive industry. Advances in carbon fiber product preparation techniques are difficult, and if the technology advances slowly, there may be a risk of being replaced by other lower cost, performance products. Alternatives are bound to intensify competition in the industry, and product prices will fluctuate.

Countermeasures: Strengthen cooperation with enterprises in the same industry, improve product research and development, and maintain a leading position in the industry.

Yancheng Xiangsheng Carbon Fiber Technology Co., Ltd. is a registered trademark of “Xiangli”, which independently develops a complete set of rotorcraft, landing gear, agricultural and forestry plant plant protection spray system, seaplane pontoon, wind-driven ship, aviation communication helmet, carbon fiber for plastic reinforcement, carbon fiber powder for friction materials, chopped carbon fiber for brake system, and 16 series of carbon fiber rope, carbon fiber cloth, carbon fiber physiotherapy cushion, carbon fiber filament special fiber cutting machine.